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Jio is going public at $120 billion and Wall Street is already skeptical

Jio is going public at $120 billion and Wall Street is already skeptical

Photo: Kindel Media

Mukesh Ambani's Jio Platforms is asking investors to value it at roughly 10.3 trillion rupees (about $120 billion) when it begins trading this week, in what would be the largest initial public offering in Indian history. The number sounds enormous. It is also, by early market signals, a significant climb-down from what Ambani originally wanted.

When Jio filed its draft prospectus over the summer, the target valuation was reported at more than £110 billion. The current ask, at the top end of its share price range, is closer to half that. A broader Indian stock market slump, with the country's benchmark index down more than 12% this year, has forced the family to price more cautiously than they planned.

What Jio actually is

Jio launched its telecom service in September 2016, and the growth numbers are genuinely hard to dispute. The company signed up 16 million subscribers in its first month and crossed 100 million within 170 days. It did this largely by undercutting the competition so aggressively that rivals had to slash their own prices, making mobile internet meaningfully cheaper for hundreds of millions of Indians. Today it offers low-cost broadband across the country and has ambitions in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure.

The company is a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, the conglomerate built by patriarch Mukesh Ambani, and is now led day-to-day by his oldest son Akash. At its current target valuation, Jio would become India's fourth-largest company by market value, behind Reliance itself, telecom rival Bharti Airtel, and HDFC Bank.

Who is already in, and who still needs convincing

Before shares opened to the public Wednesday, Jio locked in 212 anchor investors on Monday. The list reads like a roll call of global institutional money: BlackRock, Fidelity, JP Morgan Asset Management, Franklin Templeton, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Schroders, Invesco, and Prudential all committed. Meta and Google had already been investors since 2020, when they backed the company at a valuation of 4.9 trillion rupees, less than half of what Jio is targeting now.

The IPO offers up to 270 million new shares at a price range of 1,065 to 1,119 rupees each. Reliance has also been encouraging its more than 400,000 employees to participate, offering them a discount of 54 rupees per share. The offering closes Friday.

Why the valuation gap matters

The distance between what Ambani originally wanted and what he is accepting now is not a minor rounding error. It reflects real friction between the ambitions of a powerful family-owned conglomerate and what independent investors, weighing their own risks in a down market, are willing to pay.

Jio's 2020 valuation, when Meta and Google invested, was 4.9 trillion rupees. The current target is more than twice that. That kind of jump, over six years for a company that has not yet gone public, is a bet on future growth in AI and cloud as much as it is a reflection of current earnings. Whether the anchor investors who signed up Monday priced that bet correctly, or simply got in early on a prestigious deal, is a question the open market will start answering this week.

For ordinary Indians, the more immediate story may be simpler. Jio reshaped how the country connects to the internet, drove down prices, and is now asking the public to own a piece of what it wants to become next. Whether that next chapter, built on cloud infrastructure and AI ambitions, justifies a $120 billion price tag is exactly the kind of disagreement that IPO markets exist to resolve.

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