Roivant Sciences spent years building a pipeline. Now Stifel is projecting $9 billion in sales by 2037, and Wall Street is watching to find out whether the company can actually sell drugs, not just develop them.

On September 16, the investment firm Stifel initiated coverage of Roivant with a buy rating and a $51 price target, implying about 29% upside from the stock's price at that time. The projection hinges on Roivant converting a broad set of late-stage drug candidates into real revenue across autoimmune and pulmonary diseases. That is a different skill set from running clinical trials, and Roivant has not yet proven it has one.

The first real test

The FDA approved Roivant's drug Lisraya (the generic name is brepocitinib) on August 27 for adults with dermatomyositis, a rare inflammatory disease that attacks the muscles and skin. It became the first FDA-approved oral treatment for the condition.

That approval is meaningful. It is also just the beginning.

Rare disease drugs face a specific commercial challenge that has nothing to do with the drug itself. Doctors who rarely see a condition rarely think to prescribe a treatment for it. Insurers negotiate hard on reimbursement for drugs with small patient populations. And any competitor that arrives with a similar mechanism or delivery method can chip away at market share quickly. Roivant gets none of that resolved simply by having an approved drug on the shelf.

Physician awareness, insurance coverage, and competition will determine whether Lisraya gets prescribed in meaningful numbers or sits largely unused, the way many rare disease approvals do.

What else is in the pipeline

Roivant is not a one-drug story. The company is also testing brepocitinib in non-infectious uveitis (inflammation inside the eye), cutaneous sarcoidosis (a skin condition caused by abnormal immune cell clusters), and lichen planopilaris (a scarring form of hair loss). Phase 3 data from the sarcoidosis study is expected in 2028. The uveitis data is expected in the second half of 2026.

Separately, a drug called IMVT-1402, which works by blocking a protein that helps certain harmful antibodies survive in the body, is advancing in Graves' disease, myasthenia gravis, and difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis. Clinical updates are expected in 2026, with potential registration trials to follow.

And a third program, mosliciguat, produced encouraging Phase 2 results in a form of pulmonary hypertension tied to lung disease. The study showed a 56.3% placebo-adjusted reduction in a measure of blood pressure resistance in the lungs at 16 weeks, alongside improvements in walking distance and a biological marker of heart stress. Roivant has since launched a Phase 3 program.

Why the commercialization question matters now

For most of its history, Roivant's model has been to license or acquire drug candidates, build subsidiary companies around them, and advance those candidates through trials. The clinical track record has been solid enough. The $9 billion projection from Stifel assumes Roivant can now do the harder thing: build a sales force, negotiate with insurers, and create demand in physician communities that may never have heard of the diseases it treats.

That is not a niche concern. Plenty of biotech companies have produced genuinely effective drugs that never reached the patients who needed them because the commercial infrastructure was not there. A drug approved by the FDA is not automatically a drug that generates revenue.

Stifel's projection runs out to 2037. That is eleven years. A lot of the drugs in Roivant's pipeline are still generating Phase 2 and Phase 3 data. Some will fail. Some insurers will push back. Some competitors will arrive.

The Lisraya launch is the first public test of whether Roivant can build the second half of a pharmaceutical business. The science got them here. The selling is what comes next.